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The Roulette Wheel Theory

Behavior is probability, not identity

By Kevin Barcelon Jr.

Why do you make the choices you make—and why do some choices never seem to occur to you at all?

The Roulette Wheel Theory explores the idea that every decision begins long before the moment of choice. Experiences, relationships, environment, emotions, memories, successes, failures, and countless other influences continuously shape the mental “wheel” from which our possible responses emerge.

Instead of looking only at the choice someone ultimately makes, the book asks readers to look backward—to understand how that person's wheel was built, why certain options appeared on it, and why another person facing the same situation might see an entirely different set of possibilities.

The Roulette Wheel Theory offers a different way to examine behavior, influence, identity, and human decision-making.

You already know which choice was made.

The more interesting question is:

Why was that choice on the wheel in the first place?

Reinforcement and probabilityContext-sensitive behaviorSystems, environments, and possibility
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